Prediction Markets in Telegram Sponsored Ads#

Prediction markets allow users to bet on real-world outcomes using crypto. Telegram Ads Spy catalogued 65+ unique creatives from Polymarket, Kalshi, Azuro, Augur, and Mango Markets across 9,000+ Telegram channels.

Top Advertisers#

Platform	Ads	Intensity	Model
Polymarket	~25	8/10	USDC-based, Polygon
Azuro	~18	7/10	On-chain sports betting
Kalshi	~14	6/10	CFTC-regulated, US-focused
Overtime Sports	~8	7/10	Thales Markets sports book

Creative Patterns#

Polymarket — alpha narrative: «What will happen next? Trade on real events.» Marketed primarily as an information tool, not gambling — «The most accurate predictions on the internet.» Massive 2024 ad surge around US elections.

Azuro — DeFi sports angle: «Sports betting without bookies. Fully on-chain odds. Liquidity providers earn.» Targets both bettors and yield seekers.

Kalshi — legitimacy angle: «The only CFTC-regulated prediction market.» Targets US users who were previously excluded from crypto betting platforms.

Archive Data#

Live data: /api/v1/ads?tag=prediction-markets

Market Context#

The 2024 US election drove prediction market advertising to unprecedented levels. Polymarket processed $3.5B+ in election contracts — far exceeding traditional polls in accuracy. Telegram ads from Polymarket doubled in volume 4 weeks before election day. Post-election, ads pivoted to political events globally.

Geographic Distribution#

English dominates (80%) — prediction markets skew toward English-speaking crypto-natives. US-targeted advertising grew after Kalshi's CFTC approval. Brazilian channels saw elevated Azuro soccer betting ads.

Regulatory Angle#

Prediction markets exist in regulatory grey zones in most countries. Polymarket blocked US users (Polygon Labs settlement 2022) but returned with geo-fencing debates. Kalshi won regulatory clarity via CFTC. Ads from both explicitly reference regulatory status.

2025–2026 Trends#

AI-powered prediction became a selling point: «Our AI aggregates social media to price political outcomes.» Sports prediction merged with DeFi yield: Azuro v3 let LPs earn by providing liquidity to sports books. Telegram-native prediction markets emerged — mini-apps where users bet inside group chats.

Source: Telegram Ads Spy Research · 22 April 2026 · CC-BY-4.0.

Related Reports#

• Crypto Derivatives
• Sports Betting
• AI Agents Crypto

Methodology#

Data extracted via gramesh /channels.getSponsored across 9,000+ channels. Classification by domain in ctaUrl with manual review. Counts represent unique creatives deduplicated, not impression counts.

Key Metrics#

Polymarket: $3.5B+ election volume 2024 · 1M+ unique users · Polygon USDC Azuro: $500M+ betting volume · 40+ sports supported · Gnosis + Polygon

tgadsspy research (2026). Prediction Markets on Telegram Ads: Polymarket, Kalshi, Azuro (2026). tgadsspy.com. Retrieved from https://tgadsspy.com/blog/telegram-ads-prediction-markets-2026